China: Look For A Unique and Historic Change Of Chinese Government In Late 2012

In the process of researching an article about how China censors the internet, I discovered an amazing fact: Most of the top government leaders are due to be replaced in the Fall of 2012.

This means that, for only the fifth time since the inception of Communist China, new leaders will take over. This time is a unique time in Chinese history, as a volatile economy, new technology, China's role as an economic giant, and the overthrows of oppressive governments in the Middle East and North Africa have presented unprecedented challenges.

These and many more internal and external issues will create interesting times, not just for China, but because of that nation's growing influence on the world that we live in.

To update this article, Author Gordon Chang has revisited his prediction that China will collapse in 2011. He made this prediction in 2001 and based it on the idea that the iron grip of the Chinese Communist Party would be broken for good.

Chang based his prediction on China's acceptance into the World Trade Organization. The WTO treaties are historically notorious for superseding the sovereignty of nations in order to foster better global trade.

Also, China's old school style of Communist leadership has become a millstone around the neck of a growing world economic and political power that desperately needs to move toward more progressive policies.

His article "The Coming Collapse of China: 2012 Edition" is worth a read.

The three bodies of China's government are:

People's Republic of China

State Council

People's Liberation Army (PLA).

The Communist Party comes into play by controlling the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China. This committee is composed of 4 to 9 older men who make the influential decisions of importance on a national level. They party uses the PLA to enforce those decisions. As a consequence, the PLA is critical to maintaining Communist rule in China.

Most of the members of the three sections of government are Communists, but not all of them are.

The paramount Leader of China is Hu Jintao. He is supposed to have an enormous concentration of power, but recently, he is considered to be limited in his power to exercise de facto control over the government. His official titles include:

General Secretary of the Communist Party

General Secretary of the Central Committee

President of the People's Republic of China

Chairman of the Central Military Commission

In the People's Republic of China, power is concentrated in these organs:

The General Secretary of the Communist Party of China , Hu Jintao

(Thanks to Snurre, I was able to correct this. I had Hu Jintao as the President of China!)

The State Council

This body is made up of the Premier and between 4 and 9 Vice Premiers

The Premier, Wen Jiabao, who leads the State Council and is the highest administration official to manage the bureaucracy of China. He is also head of the People's National Defense Mobilization Committee of China, which is like a National Guard. But, the Premier has no authority over the PLA.

Currently there are four Vice Premiers

There are five State Councilors that are equal to Vice Premiers, but with narrower functions.

There are 29 State Ministers and heads of State Council Commissions

The National People's Congress

This is the highest organ of state power in China. This group meets once a year for two weeks to review laws, the budget, personnel changes, new directions in national policy, and the law.

The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress adopts most of the legislation. After the Communist Party's Politburo Standing Committee endorses legislation, the State Council presents it to the National People's Congress. This used to be a quick approval process but the National People's Congress is exerting more authority to revise legislation.

The Communist Party

There have been some moves to have the Communist Party functions carried out separately from state functions. But, since an attempt during the 1990s, the separation has never been successfully made.

The Communist Party is constitutionally and legally identified as the supreme political authority in the People's Republic of China and thus has comprehensive control over the politics, the state, the Military and the media.

Hopefully, this will help to unravel the news reports and to identify the key agencies, organs and players as China makes the transition in leadership.

For much more about the structure of the Chinese government, this comprehensive, if somewhat dense and partially confusing (too many acronyms) article at Wikipedia should suffice.

The names of Premier Wen Jiabao and General Secretary Hu Jintao were combined to form the title of the "Hu Wen Administration", which is the current administration of the People's Republic of China.

This little explanation should prevent readers from trying to find out who "Hu Wen" is.

This is the fourth administration of the People's Republic of China, which has been praised for being more reform oriented and open minded in administering the state.

The Scientific Development Concept is the guiding ideology of the Hu Wen Administration, and the link iw worth a read.

The Hu Wen administration is now in a lame duck state, as maneuvering goes on toward finding new leaders. This is not the time to be in a lame duck state as China's ability to manage the economy in turbulence cannot be compromised because of the classic problems with letting the Communist party interfere with the Scientific Development Concept.

Patrick Chovanec is a professor at Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management in Beijing. He has written a killer primer on the transition situation and on the government titled "Primer on China's Leadership Transition"

So, for now, this will be a good start on the road to understanding who will be leaving and who will be coming in.